Assessing the Long-term Impact of E-bikes on Sustainable Mobility: A National-Level Study in the Netherlands

Abstract

Over the past decade, e-bikes have become increasingly popular, sparking interest in their potential replacement for car use and benefit for the environment. However, studies on e-bike substitution effects have limitations, including a lack of assessments of the effects on mobility on the national level, a narrow focus on commuting travelling, and insufficient consideration of future expected e-bike use. This study proposes a new approach that combines an intention-based method with time-series forecasting to estimate e-bike use and investigate its potential for sustainable mobility in the Netherlands. The results show that e-bike ownership strongly reduces the conventional bicycle use and, to a lesser extent, car and public transport use, especially for commuting travelling. This study provides insight into how e-bikes substitute for car use and other modes of transportation, and how the expected growth in e-bike use in coming years may impact national mobility in the Netherlands.