Empirical analysis of cycling trends in two of Europe’s most bicycle-friendly regions: Identifying the successes and the setbacks

Abstract

We present a combined longitudinal and socioeconomic study of cycling demand in the Netherlands and Denmark from 2010 to 2021. The countries are comparable in demography and both countries have well-developed cycling cultures. The longitudinal data allow us to study successes and setbacks related to cycling uptake over time. E-bikes are successfully promoting longer cycling trips and increased cycling among elderly people, particularly in the Netherlands. However, in rural areas of Denmark, we see setbacks in the form of significant reductions in cycling among children. By applying an econometric model of the combined selection effect of bicycling and the mileage effect conditional on travelling by bike, we analyse how these effects are related to, e.g. increased distances to school, increased work distance, car ownership, changes in urbanisation and other socio-economic factors. We show that these factors cannot explain all of the decline for childrens cycling in Denmark.