Optimal bicycle network expansions with endogenous demand

Abstract

The challenge of identifying the ideal spatial and temporal prioritization for long-term expansions of bicycle networks is a complex undertaking. Our objective in this research is to determine the most beneficial expansions of bicycle networks for society, while considering the impact of level-ofservice effects and induced demand throughout the evaluation period. While the effects of constant demand can be approximated through a sequence of linear binary mathematical programs (Paulsen & Rich, 2023), accommodating induced demand necessitates a different optimization approach that accounts for the likelihood of various segments being integrated in the infrastructure in future years during the optimization process. We put this approach to the test by applying it to the Greater Copenhagen Cycle Superhighway network. It is demonstrated that the optimized infrastructure render benefit-cost ratios exceeding 10, and that accounting for demand effects, significantly increases the societal return and changes the geographical structure of optimal investments.