Ex-post evaluation of national transport model - Gothenburg congestion charges application

Abstract

This paper evaluates the forecast effects of the Gothenburg congestion charges implemented in 2013. We find that the predicted traffic reductions and travel time gains were close to the observed in the peak. However, the traffic reduction was under-predicted in off-peak, because the model does not capture all of the various adaptation strategies applied to discretionary trips. The predicted route choice is highly sensitive to the VTT and distance cost implemented in the assignment model. To improve the route choice a continuous VTT distribution estimated from SC data was implemented but had to shifted upwards, adding to the evidence that VTT inferred from SC data might not reveal travellers long-term preferences.