Explicit safety indicators in bicycle route choice modelling

Abstract

Literature suggests that cyclists do not necessarily choose the objectively safest routes; instead, their route choices are influenced by subjective safety. Objective safety, such as crash risk and infrastructure conditions, further shapes route choices by influencing this subjective safety. This study estimates several bicycle route choice models where safety is accounted for with explicit indicators: the expected number of (near-)crashes on the routes. We employ different specifications to understand how cyclists’ route choice behaviour can be modelled best. Although the investigated models already account for multiple network attributes, the explicit safety indicators have an additional significant effect. The models suggest a high inter-respondent heterogeneity in the preferences. We consolidate the results with the computation of elasticity values and scenario analyses. Finally, we critically discuss how the safety aspect should be included in route choice models and formulate ideas for future research, including structural equation modelling.