Electric vehicle ownership dynamics at household level: A stated adaptation experiment on the effects of pricing and incentive policies

Abstract

A reduction of vehicles and a shift from to electric vehicles (EV) is crucial for transport decarbonisation. This transition requires effective policies. In a stated adaptation experiment, 444 respondents were faced with four scenarios presenting hypothetical pricing values concerning EV purchase subsidies, fuel and electricity prices, and public transport (PT) fares. Respondents were asked to adapt their actual household fleet in response to the scenarios. They could remove current or add new vehicles or PT passes, while being supported by a live cost calculation. The effects of the pricing strategies on changes in vehicle ownership were modelled in an integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model. Results suggest that the removing a conventional vehicle and/or replacing it with an EV can be promoted by increasing fuel prices, lowering electricity prices, and lowering PT fares. EV purchase subsidy was found to be ineffective.