Possibilities to Replace Short-haul Flights with Train Travel when Accounting for Rail Capacity

Abstract

To address the rising environmental concerns for transport-related GhG emissions, European governments are considering the implementation of increasingly restrictive policies targeting air traffic, such as SHF bans. This study investigates the impact of a series of SHF ban measures at the European level in terms of affected flights, offered seats and additional train services required to fill the supply gap. The CO2e savings, Travel Time Gains and relative monetary benefits are quantified at the route level and for a series of policy scenarios. Furthermore, the impact on the rail sector in terms of increase of capacity utilisation is estimated for the Swedish case study. Results suggest: that for flight-ban policies to succeed, the international scope and higher thresholds (i.e., up to 5 hours) are paramount. At the same time, considerable focus should be placed on improving air-rail integration, developing the high-speed network, and removing infrastructural bottlenecks.