Latent growth curve trajectories for travel mode attitudes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

This study models the growth trajectory of car and public transport attitudes, both as a function of age and the calendar year. Such growth analyses can improve our understanding of the changes in attitudes over time, information that could prove helpful for forecasting future travel-related attitudes and travel behaviour. For both the car and public transport, we find three latent classes with distinct growth trajectories. Public transport attitudes’ growth follows a U-shape pattern as a function of age, minimising at around age 40. Car attitudes’ growth trajectories follow an inverted U-shape, maximising around age 40. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic caused substantial changes in attitude values for both public transport and the car; with attitudes towards the former becoming more negative and towards the latter more positive. The magnitude of this change was related to the growth trajectory of the attitude, with a larger drop for the group that was already least favourable towards public transport. In the years since 2020, most attitudes have trended back towards the values seen before the pandemic. However, the more positive public transport groups’ attitudes have not recovered yet.