Exploring the Impact of Deceleration Rates on Traffic Incident Probability: A Case Study of Motorways in the Netherlands

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of traffic deceleration on incident occurrence on Dutch motorways, using a dataset enriched with incident locations and traffic data, including congestion patterns. Currently, a wide array of indicators is employed to gauge road traffic safety, yet the connection between these indices and actual road incidents remains ambiguous. Therefore, this research explores whether average (maximum) deceleration distributions can act as surrogate safety measures, to potentially enhance traffic safety and management. It also examines the correlation between deceleration and incidents, aiming to fill the research gap on this relationship. The methodology involves a comprehensive data analysis of incident frequency and traffic deceleration over a five-month period. Findings from this study could aid traffic management centers in prioritizing road safety interventions and inform the development of in-vehicle warning systems, contributing to safer road environments in the Netherlands.