Cost-effective scenarios for reaching transportation climate targets

Abstract

We explore cost-effective scenarios for reaching climate targets for the transportation sectors in the EU and Sweden, calculating cost-efficient relative contributions to emissions reductions from electrification, biofuels and traffic reduction. Cost-effective scenarios, or roadmaps, are important not only for for climate policy; they have implications for traffic planning, biofuel production and the transformation of the vehicle industry. Our results indicate that electrification is the most important factor for reaching the climate targets. With the recent EU vehicle regulations in place, it is possible to reach the climate targets at a moderate cost; with slow electrification, the long-run targets are virtually impossible to reach. Reaching the targets also require considerable amounts of biofuel volumes, especially in the short and medium term. Traffic reduction contributes only marginally. Hence, other negative externalities need be handled by other policy measures; climate policy only makes a marginal contribution to reducing other traffic externalities.