The More the Merrier? On how many passengers should follow real-time crowding information (RTCI) during bus service disturbances

Abstract

Regularity of public transport services can be substantially impeded by feedback loops between supply operations and demand flows. Amongst potential countermeasures, an interesting (yet unexplored) pertains to informing passengers in real-time about estimated travel times and on-board crowding levels of bus arrivals at the stops. In this study, we analyse whether providing such realtime crowding information (RTCI) can restore regular public transport performance, depending on passengers’ voluntary responsiveness to the RTCI. We apply the simulation-based assignment model BusMezzo to the real-world model of a busy bus corridor in Warsaw (Poland). Findings from sensitivity analysis reveal that RTCI can bring the most tangible benefits in passengers’ journey experience with the 50 – 75% RTCI penetration rate, while also contributing towards greater service regularity. Ubiquitous (100%) response to the RTCI seems also advantageous for the PT supply and demand performance, although with a certain risk of rebound in overcrowding effects.