The uptake of electrification and its transport and land use impacts; The case of Southampton (UK)

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are heralded as a promising green alternative to conventional fossil-fuelpowered vehicles. The introduction of EVs is likely to impact the urban structure, but the magnitude of these impacts remains largely unexplored. The aim of this study is, hence, to shed light on this aspect by utilising the TRANUS Land-Use and Transportation Interaction (LUTI) model and by formulating a methodological framework to model electrification. Southampton (UK) is used as a case study and varying uptakes of EVs are modelled for a set of future scenarios. Based on census data and government projections, the model provides a quantitative outcome of the potential effects. The results indicate that employment might grow substantially in suburban areas. These changes are related to transport changes associated with private car use, such as growth in trips, distance travelled and journey times. Therefore, congestion increases and more interventions need to be implemented alongside electrification.