Identifying the land use effects of new transportation technologies. The case of West Midlands

Abstract

Emerging technologies in transportation, such as autonomous (AVs) and electric vehicles (EVs), are expected to change the evolution of land use characteristics at both the regional and urban level. Due to its socioeconomic characteristics, the West Midlands is expected to adopt these technologies and is deemed an appropriate example to test technological scenarios. The aim of the study is to examine different scenarios for the uptake of AVs and EVs in order to appraise the possible land use effects. Three situations are examined, with the first being related to the existence of EVs by the year 2021, the second to both level 2 AVs and EVs by 2021 the third to Level 2 and Level 3 AVs as well as EVs by 2031. These are examined at both the regional and urban level, using the DELTA Land Use and Transportation Interaction (LUTI) model. Having modelled the scenarios by estimating differences in generalised cost and modal splits, the regional and urban effects are appraised with cartographic representations and graphs, in order to draw conclusions. Differing results are found at the regional and urban levels, whilst the biggest changes occur when all the technologies exist simultaneously.