Exploring a potential downside of multi-modality by estimating the effect of the weather on travellers with different modality styles

Abstract

To inform policies aimed at more sustainable travel behaviour, previous research has looked into the concept of multi-modality. The notion underlying this research is that multi-modal travellers are more sustainable than unimodal travellers. This paper investigates a possible downside of more multi-modal travellers, which is their increased sensitivity to exogenous variation of the circumstances of the trip. The main idea of this paper is that multi-modal travellers resort to the use of the car more quickly when ‘car-favouring’ conditions present themselves. This idea is investigated by estimating the effects of the weather on mode choices of different segments of the population, using a latent class discrete choice model. Results show that the more multi-modal class is indeed more sensitive to changes in weather circumstances compared to the less multi-modal classes. To increase sustainability, more multi-modal behaviour then is not always desirable. Rather than the number of modes used, it is the sustainability of the modes that are part of the multi-modal behaviour that matters.