Modelling passengers’ willingness to wait in the presence of real-time crowding information (RTCI)

Abstract

In this study we model the stated willingness to wait (WTW) for a less-crowded public transport (PT) service departure in the presence of real-time crowding information (RTCI). We conduct a stated-preference survey and investigate passengers’ preferences in relation to boarding the first (more crowded) departure vs. waiting for the second, less-crowded one. We then estimate a series of multinomial and mixed logit models. Results show that the possibility to avoid overcrowding in the first departure induces a significant WTW rate, ranging from 10% to 70% - notably, depending on the crowding level of first departure, wait time for next departure and users’ perceived propensity to arrive on-time. Acceptable wait times range on average between 2 – 10 minutes, reaching even up to ca. 20 minutes in individual cases. Our findings for urban PT (i.e. bus or tram) services differ from those previously reported in the context of regional or rail transport. The estimated value-of-time multipliers are applicable for simulation and analytical purposes. We also discuss implications for developing the RTCI as a travel demand management tool, potentially effective in mitigating PT service disruptions.