How Transferable Are Mode Choice Models With Autonomous Vehicles? Evidence from Seven Regions

Abstract

Simulation-based transport planning often relies on transferring mode choice models between regions, particularly when studying new or emerging transport modes such as autonomous vehicles (AVs), for which observed behavioral data are scarce. The validity of such transfers, however, remains uncertain. This study empirically assesses the transferability of discrete mode choice models including AV alternatives across Flanders, Cantabria, the Netherlands, Athens, Kansas City, Seattle, and New York City. Comparable multinomial logit models were estimated from stated preference datasets, and cross-regional equivalence was evaluated using likelihood ratio tests. Results show that behavioral parameter equivalence across regions is generally rejected, with substantial heterogeneity observed for most transcontinental comparisons and among U.S. metropolitan areas. Evidence consistent with behavioral equivalence is found primarily within Europe, particularly between Belgium and the Netherlands. These findings underscore the need for caution when applying transferred mode choice models in simulation and policy analysis.