Understanding shoppers’ acceptance of emerging last-mile delivery modes: Drones, ground robots and cargo bikes

Abstract

The rapid growth of e-commerce has intensified pressures on urban last-mile delivery, prompting interest in autonomous ground robots, drones, and cargo bikes as alternatives. This study examines stated acceptance of these three modes using survey data from 2,012 respondents across four European cities: Dortmund, Paris, Trondheim, and Zurich, estimated through a multivariate ordered probit model incorporating socio-demographic, attitudinal, behavioural, delivery-related, and contextual variables. Cargo bike delivery receives the highest acceptance across cities, while acceptance of automated modes is lower and varies significantly, with Paris showing notably lower acceptance of robots and drones. Privacy concerns are a significant barrier to automated mode acceptance, whereas environmental concerns positively predict cargo bike acceptance. Shopping frequency and virtual shopping engagement are the most consistent positive predictors across all three modes. The findings underscore the importance of behavioural heterogeneity and urban context for evaluating and promoting sustainable last-mile delivery innovations.