A Stochastic Assessment of Hydrogen’s Potential in Decarbonizing Road Transport

Abstract

The decarbonisation of long-distance freight transport represents a considerable challenge, particularly in those transnational corridors characterised by high levels of road traffic. In this context, hydrogen-powered heavy-duty vehicles are increasingly regarded as a potential solution to this challenge. However, this is contingent upon the availability of hydrogen production pathways. This study uses a stochastic modelling approach to evaluate the deployment of hydrogen for freight corridors in uncertain conditions and its associated decarbonisation potential. The approach combines freight activity data at the corridor level with technology penetration and emission factor data in a Monte Carlo simulation model. The approach is employed to model the Brenner corridor, a significant freight corridor in Europe. The results indicate that emission reductions are contingent on hydrogen production pathways, varying from 13.5% to 20.5%, with the most likely value at 17%. The findings highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for uncertainty when evaluating hydrogen-based decarbonisation strategies.