The Role of Prior Experience in Shaping Anticipated Travel and Activity Behavior Changes in Future Extreme Heat Events

Abstract

Extreme heat events have been growing in intensity and frequency across the world, posing growing risks to public health, daily mobility, and community resilience. While behavioral adaptation is a critical coping mechanism during these events, the understanding of how prior experience shapes future adaptation choices is limited. This study addresses this by examining how the severity of past heat events influences anticipated future activity-travel choices. Using a nationwide survey data from the U.S., two multivariate econometric model systems are estimated – one for mobility choices and one for activity participation. Results reveal that perceived severity of prior extreme heat events directly affects anticipated behavioral adjustments, with individuals learning from experience to reduce heat exposure through decreased transit use, increased car use, staying home, and greater participation in indoor activities. It also found that vulnerable groups perceive heat impacts more intensely yet exhibit limited adaptation capacity, underscoring the need for targeted interventions.