A Composite Suitability Framework to Identify Areas with Modal Shift Potential from Motorized Travel to Bike-Sharing in Barcelona: The Case of Bicing

Abstract

This study develops a composite suitability framework integrating demand density and flow imbalance to identify areas in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area (AMB) with potential for modal shift from motorized travel to the Bicing bike-sharing system. Motorized origin–destination (OD) flows from traffic analysis zones (TAZ) are redistributed to a uniform rhombus grid and converted into bike-feasible demand using cycling travel times on the road network and a probabilistic bicycle-use model calibrated from observed bike-sharing trip durations. Based on this, demand density and flow imbalance are calculated for each rhombus and combined into a composite suitability score used to classify rhombuses into four categories: Priority, Serve but costly, Stable but weak, and Avoid. Comparison with the current Bicing service area shows strong overlap with Priority areas while revealing substantial high-suitability areas that remain unserved. The framework provides a transparent, scalable approach to identifying suitable areas for bike-sharing service provision.