How important is Accessibility in a 15 minutes Hot-Arid City?: A Hybrid Choice Modelling Approach

Abstract

The 15-minute city is commonly operationalized through objective proximity measures, yet less is known about perceptions about which activities matter most to have nearby, especially in hot-arid settings. This paper examines accessibility priorities in Abu Dhabi through an importance-based ranking of nearby amenities. We estimated a hybrid choice model with an exploded logit structure and latent variables capturing neighbourhood satisfaction and lifestyle. The model incorporates purpose-specific willingness to walk under nice and hot weather. Results show that groceries and work/school dominate overall rankings and prioritizing nearby access is associated more strongly with existing walkability practice than with activity frequency. Weather also matters: greater willingness to walk in pleasant weather reduces the urgency of nearby location, whereas willingness to walk under hot conditions identifies purposes that remain essential despite heat. The findings support a perceived-accessibility interpretation of the 15MC in which local accessibility is purpose-specific, socially differentiated, and climate-conditioned.